Update: Concerning the Pacific

 INTRODUCTION

Consequences due the future foreseeable event of docking of multiple fleets up to twenty and even to one hundred ships on the Pacific coast yield the call for problem setting and the search for solutions.  The ultimate danger lies in that populaces at sea at duration from differing circumstantial background for boarding could effectively turn against expectations to the position and posture and actuality of the offensive.  Despite such an unnatural risk, the tides of popular opinion continue to stand on the messages of support and sympathy, this against the talks that such populaces could constitute as far as “uprising” or “invading”.  However, the leaning towards a pacifist reading of history related to World War II on this continent supports the notion that we from both government and the people could “shore” these individuals in settings not yet yielded into reality.

To consider in this short brief the notion of shoring such populaces requires the mindset that does not deviate from the major agenda of security.  Security cannot be superceded as an agenda for that not only support staff from known agencies and informal organizations will be placed at risk, but also that the populaces themselves be subject to exceptional circumstances, and not to mention, perhaps most importantly, the safety and continuing livelihood of those who live in situ or in areas surrounding the location where these populaces are placed.

The call for a solution must consider the fact that only a strong design will overcome the difficulty of delay due series of small adjustments after the instatement.  If an unfocused start rends the commencement of settling yet determined individuals in large volume, then much becomes impossible in the time following.  To be selective in the provisions and actions is then a subproblem, of which the selectivity criteria need to be determined far ahead of schedule.  The estimated time to arrival from today in summer of 2023 is only half a year to two years, with further arrivals estimated to be in the duration of the next half decade.

Perhaps of priority, should the site location and perimeter along with housing provisions be determinable first of all, then the topic of the traffic and safekeeping of personnel and supplies must reach deliberation.  The particulars of circumstances of those arriving remain largely unknown, but preliminary investigations yield that they are unusual, reaching towards paranormal conditions, even if the idea of exceptional and extreme circumstances were already described.  It is believed that extensive processing might be in order, however, such could always exacerbate conditions of individuals and social mentality, for processing often carries with it the stigma and indignity that all but trained military personnel find hard to stand in these climates including human rights.

SECTION1

With risks running fairly high on an operation of this nature, to settle at least temporarily, a large volume of unidentified persons and provide sustenance, to reduce the chance of conflict, it would be optimistic to remark that in addition to the calling of the formalized agencies, volunteer and paid positions will increase as related to demands found in such an operation.  This means that more jobs and work will become available in the state or states where such is occurring.  Another optimistic note will be that running the economics of a large populace perhaps bear some comparison to managing a large newly founded market - similarly, the operation could run smoothly with the right and adequate amount of planning, which follows up with well organized and efficient coordination.  Nevertheless, the most important priority to keep in mind is the how for the circumvention of the multiplication of risks.

As in any scaled endeavor, we must remain strongly oriented to the objective in mind.  I would propose that in context of shoring large volumes, we are reaching towards an eventual mechanism, which needs in the first to be discreet to prevent following volumes, that would satisfy the requirements, this too will need to be determined.  

The ultimate goal behind the objective of the mechanism of settlement, whether at length or at shorter duration, is related to peace and the reduction of conflict.  Under such a goal will be the distribution in adequate amount of assistance in the form of support as well as provisions in food and other necessities.  As before, the complement to the goal of peace is also the prevention of a shift to offensive actions which may be from minor transgressions to major offensive invasive methods.  Thus amongst a tide of various does the operation move: given the expected numbers of arrivals, as well as that additionally other phenomena may follow, the priority in planning must find definite deliberation on the security of surrounding regions.

In this stage where the news is spreading of the event, it is inadvisable to keep the matter entirely under wraps for a large area may yet be affected, where preparations and communication lines are better to have at hand rather than not.  Where security for entire regions become tantamount, the true reality is that people have to become largely aware, and in many cases be prepared, and then too to become open and conversant with agents who are arriving into the region, who are seeking to make way for the future scenarios.

Later in time, the question will arise of what relationships do local peoples form with those arriving.  For now, we should figure what contexts will surround the scenario, and at once focus on the response which is laid down in advance of the event.  Over long term, the trick will be how to remain focused and goal oriented.  Into the scenario, the question will involve how to work without pitting one against another, this true for those of us on response teams, as well as for those in the populaces arriving that found a new freedom of being on land.

Insofar as the goal within the central program which will need to be devised soon, it is an equation of balancing critical resources’ distribution, not only amongst the response teams themselves, and within the populaces arriving, but over time as well so that the program could remain sustainable.

SECTION2

Another angle from which we need to review the scenario proposed to be unfolding in the near future concerns just what is the composition and the dispositions various of those who arrive in our guided attempt to settle.

It is possible to wonder whether arranging a long term goal, stressing not only the resilience to survive, but to someday prosper, perhaps even as a community, could be a vision that leaders especially of the younger years could find strength to maintain.  Of course, it is important to be realistic.  What are the limitations to the design to be proposed?  And what are the limitations to the content which we will have to generate to suppose that the new arrivals will find that peaceful settlement could be an actual avenue, as opposed to deviations into lines of crime or worse yet, invasion.  To find a singular orienting message, and to arrange all its contents as well as organizational logistic, promises to be an investment that could yield fruit not only in the immediate times in hopes of the reduction of conflict in this land, but also in generations to come.

SECTION3

In regards the arrangement which today has yet started, essentially, the problem becomes one of costs to policy, if we can assume the first item of finding locations and perimeters to be possible.  Which location not only have ready made infrastructure and housing, but also access by roads or rails without such assuming unacceptable liability?  To settle such a large volume of potentially many internal conflicts and problems, we need to consider the types of goods which are essential, able to enter the communities at a steady rate as measured to projected rations or demand, and also the types of goods which could act as rewards that promote morale and strength of endurance.

The arrangements we will make, for that house, infrastructure such as water, hygiene and heating, goods, and rewards assume the appearance of that of a specially named and classed zone.  Certain regulations will have to enter the arrangement such that balanced distribution of supplies and lawful existence could be possible.  Further, processing proceedings also need room, this especially for veterans who arrived and could not be welcomed in time.

On a longer course, such a zone with its status and provisions, as well as support agents and staff plus volunteers, will need the attribute of projected duration.  Whether this type of settlement opportunity provides a certain temporary or permanent status is a matter of political decision.  However, to keep in mind are whether adaptations from the years at sea, from the times in such transitionary shelter, could be utilized by some if not most for adaptation into civil society or armed forces elsewhere.

The difficulty for individuals to adapt from exceptional circumstances into normal life is often spoken of.  It is in fact possible, but usually not so for quite some time and with some assistance at least.  Thus for the transition of these individuals from the perceived state of danger into the state of normalcy and safe space is yet another consideration that we will need to deliberate upon.  Eventually, the question of access to “normal life” will be raised, and how then shall we deal with it?

And in context of the zone delineated for the acceptance of the arrivals, surrounding regions could now be seen to have assumed much too much risk.  How will we assign protective status to structures, bureaucracies or democracies, and the bare lifes and livelihoods of those living in surrounding areas?  This is a point best addressed up front, especially in the stage where the designation of place is made.  We will have to understand whether the use of forces becomes appropriate at this juncture.

Finally, the matter that continued attention is expected on such zones and peoples must be quickly addressed.  We could not afford to offer a three-month solution and expect that peoples will find their way from that point on.  The sustainability of rights in zones such as these will be trying, and so will the maintenance of the zone in its structures and provisions and staff for the conditions themselves are trying.  The notion of exit for these individuals will need to reach decision even in the planning stage.

SECTION4

There are many issues surrounding a solution such as this, to shore unidentified peoples on our lands, in only to reduce the risk of harm to surrounding communities.  That their satisfaction should be garnered over time and trust built is only one of the pressing concerns.  Yet, over time, their inclination for impact could be lessened should raise optimism for this type of solution.  There are persisting still questions on the readiness of the nation as related to invasive patterns, this including the projected to be lesser problem of the migrant problem.

I will for the conclusion of this brief mention a few of the issues in the further future.  One such issue is that of intermediate relations, concerning not if or not the scenario should reach public accounting including on news media, but that in how should reporting take place.  In this we need to consider that intermediate relations as well as direct relations are forming all the time when interaction takes place.  We can know that reporting will happen from within the scenario, but also from surrounding societies, as well as from different agencies.

Another issue to consider is that of a security orienting agenda.  Could such agenda find communication with the arriving populace as well as the general public?  We must have known in advance that the two will not be perfectly aligned, for the objectives and concerns belong to the two parties respectively.  In considering this, we could also understand that when the scenario unfolds, we will find out what expectations and desires are on the arrivals’ minds - what is it they were hoping for deep down, aside from what they are chatting about, and what is their deeper inclinations towards conflict?  For all who travel to the new world had harbored some preconceptions of what it is, and this is critical for us to circumvent future conflicts in time after the earliest arrivals.

Not to be brushed aside is the issue of mobility.  While rights belong to all citizens, many who are arriving did arrive from foreign lands.  This means that their world views in their preconceptions towards life, religion, and society including law abidence, will be different from expected.  How this should affect others to whom they could travel will determine whether situations will remain within the domains of jurisdiction and control.

Related to above issue is the question of whether arrivals could be expected to enter into legal agreements.  With how little we know about who they are and what they are about, this including their literacy levels, we are hard pressed today to know what types of legal agreements could be found binding and effective.  But this is a point which should not be missed as related to immigration possibilities and settlement avenues, especially for those who are highly educated or skilled.

One also worries over essential supplies as related to capacities of provision and carry.  In these times where we are forecasting further problems, is it within budget to provide beyond essential sustenance, and how much so?

SECTION5

Given that this report was written in a hurry after only hearing of this scenario unfolding three months ago, the author hopes the reader will forgive the haphazard notes, and see to highlight the issues which could be seen to be particularly salient to a peaceful transition into settlement or return for the arrivals who are due in such a short period of time.